Inflation: a pain for many, but a plus for savers?

Writing for CBC, Don Pittis notes that the return of higher inflation will be both good and bad news for Canadians.

Observing that inflation in the U.S. is running at 6.2 per cent, and that the Bank of Canada’s Governor Tiff Macklem is predicting five per cent inflation here, Pittis writes that “if history is any guide, inflation can lead to turmoil.”

“Those effects include the pain of shrinking spending power, the prospect of labour conflict as employees struggle to get their spending power back, a potential disruption of Canada’s soaring housing market and a reconsideration for older people about how to make their money last through a long retirement,” writes Pittis.

But there can be an upside to inflation for some of us, he continues. He quotes The Intercept columnist Jon Schwarz as stating “inflation is bad for the one per cent but is good for almost everyone else.”

As an example, those saving for retirement will be pleased by higher interest rates, Pittis contends.

“It is clear that those saving for retirement may take a different view, especially as the boomer bulge exits the labour market. Even before the latest round of pandemic monetary stimulus, people contemplating a long retirement complained about a paltry return on savings. With inflation higher than the rate of interest, cautious savers are now watching with horror as their future spending power shrinks,” writes Pittis.

He notes that even as inflation ticks up, “lenders have been handing out mortgages at rates considerably less than the rate of inflation.”

Inflation, the article concludes, may lead to higher prices but also higher wages for workers; Pittis adds that any rise in the Bank of Canada rate won’t be an instant fix for inflation, but the beginning of a process that might take years.

Save with SPP can attest to some of the things Pittis points out by thinking back to the high-interest days of the ‘70s and ‘80s. He’s right to predict higher rates are a plus for savers – we recall getting Canada Savings Bonds that paid double-digit interest with zero risk. The same was true of Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs).

There was a positive effect on wages as well. There was federal legislation on wage and price controls that, among other things, limited wage increases to six per cent the first year, and five per cent the second. Six and Five. In the many decades that have come and gone since the old Six and Five days, it is hard to think of a time when people got routine pay raises that were that large.

So while we gripe about higher gas prices and grocery costs, and the jump in the costs of most things due to supply chain issues, this would be a good time to start stashing away a few bucks every payday for your future retirement.

A great destination for those loonies is the Saskatchewan Pension Plan. The SPP, now celebrating its 35^th year of operations, offers a balanced approach to investing. The SPP’s Balanced Fund invests 26 per cent of its assets in bonds, 7.5 per cent in mortgages and 1.5 per cent in short term investments. You can bet the plan’s investment managers are keeping an eye out for growing opportunities in the fixed income sector – and that’s good news for all of us who have chosen SPP to be a part of our long-term retirement savings plan.

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If there’s one thing almost everyone can agree on, it was great to celebrate – in a limited, socially distanced way – the end of the brutal year 2020, when the pandemic slammed the world.

It’s been a particularly frightening year for those of us struggling to save a few bucks for our retirement.

Back in February, when the COVID-19 crisis was beginning to take effect, stock markets dropped sharply, erasing “four years of gains,” reports Maclean’s . The market’s crash was based on fear – “not knowing how severe COVID was going to be in terms of morbidity,” the magazine explains.

In addition to the shocking numbers of deaths and sickness COVID-19 delivered, it also walloped our economy. According to Wealth Professional, quoting Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, Canada’s economy “is expected to shrink by 5.5 per cent for the whole of 2020, with the initial rebound following the First Wave of the pandemic having eased.”

We all know what he’s talking about here – the First Wave led to lockdowns and business closures, and high unemployment. There was a break in the summer as much of the shuttered economy reopened, but now the Second Wave is causing lockdowns and job losses once again.

The usual safe harbour for savers when the economy (and stock markets) are volatile is in fixed income, investments that pay us interest. However, in order to reboot the economy, the Bank of Canada is planning to keep interest rates low “until 2023,” Macklem states in the Wealth Professional article.

Those “low for long” interest rates mean it is not the best time to buy bonds or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs). Some savers looked to the real estate investment trust (REIT) market to replace the income their fixed income was providing, notes The Motley Fool. While some REITs, notably industrial ones, and those involved with warehousing and data centres did well, “retail and hospitality REITs… had lost 80 per cent of their value at the market’s bottom.” The Motley Fool article wonders how investments in commercial office and retail space will fare in a world where most people are working from home.

Now that 2020 is behind us, there are signs of better days ahead.

The markets in Canada and around the world are now recovering due to late-year news that effective vaccines are nearly ready for distribution.

Dave Randall of Reuters, writing in the Chronicle-Herald, notes that November was “a record-breaking month as the prospect of a vaccine-driven economic recovery next year and further central bank stimulus measures eclipsed immediate concerns about the spiking coronavirus pandemic.”

Let’s review all this. The pandemic hit us hard, sending markets down, throwing people out of work, shrinking the economy. Central banks had to cut interest rates to reduce borrowing costs. That’s great for borrowing but less great for saving. Those looking to replace the interest they weren’t getting had to navigate a market that dropped by 40-50 per cent in the late winter and is recovering, and they had to face the reality that some sectors were doing far better than others.

2021, however, looks like a better year. Market optimism is returning, and once the vaccines start to get distributed around the country, we will (hopefully) start to see a return to more normal times, with no lockdowns and business restrictions.

The point of retirement saving is putting money away for the future, which may be quite soon or decades away. If you’re worried about saving on your own for retirement during these volatile days, you might consider teaming up with the Saskatchewan Pension Plan. With SPP, experts run the money at an extremely low cost. We all have enough to worry about these days – let SPP take the worry of pandemic-era retirement saving off of your plate!

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