New life for an old rule of thumb – the four per cent withdrawal rate?

Let’s say you entered retirement with a large chunk of money – no monthly income other than government benefits.

How much can you afford to take out each year without risking running out of money in the future?

It’s an age-old question in retirement circles. Save with SPP once asked it of eminent retirement expert Dr. John Por who told us the answer is “unknowable,” since it would have to be based on “future interest rates, the stock markets, inflation, life expectancy and income needs.”

Writing for SmartAsset, Brian J. O’Connor says new research has found that the old “four per cent withdrawal” rule might be back in fashion.

So, what is the four per cent withdrawal rule, exactly?

“Created in 1994 by a financial planner named William Bengen, the four per cent rule posits that retirees can make a well-structured retirement fund last 30 years by withdrawing no more than four per cent of the balance in the first year of retirement, then adjusting subsequent withdrawals for inflation,” O’Connor explains.

With the volatile markets we’ve seen of late, some observers criticized the four per cent rule, arguing that in down markets, sticking to a four per cent withdrawal drives “returns risk.” In other words, if your investments are down, you are sort of “selling low” by withdrawing a set amount. Financial journalist Suze Orman, writes O’Connor, called for a more conservative three per cent withdrawal rate.

But, O’Connor continues, things are changing, and a recent Morningstar study seems to back the old four per cent idea once again.

“The investment analysis firm Morningstar has examined the safe rate of withdrawal for the first year of retirement for a few years running. Morningstar’s newest research finds that with the partial recovery of stocks, withdrawing up to four per cent is once again a safe starting point,” O’Connor notes.

Morningstar’s Amy Arnott tells O’Connor that these days, a four per cent withdrawal rate for today’s retirees has a 90 per cent chance of “still having funds remaining after a 30-year time horizon.” Research by Morningstar has made this safe withdrawal rate a moving target – in 2021, they recommended 3.3 per cent, and in 2022, 3.8 per cent.

As well, the research is based on a portfolio that has “20 to 40 per cent” exposure to stock.

The article concludes by noting that the shift in thinking to four per cent is driven by a drop in the long-term estimate for inflation and a rise in projected 30-year fixed income returns.

There’s another way of avoiding running out of money in retirement.

Members of the Saskatchewan Pension Plan can choose to annuitize some or all of their savings when they retire. With the annuity option, you can receive a payment on the first of the month, every single month for as long as you live. Want more flexibility? Check out SPP’s Variable Benefit, now available to all Canadian SPP members. You can take out as little or as much as you like with this option, and then can still consider annuitizing at a later date!

Check out SPP today!

Join the Wealthcare Revolution – follow SPP on Facebook!

Could The Great Retirement be followed by the Great Returnship?

Will high inflation, volatile investment returns and soaring interest rates tempt new and recent retirees into “returnship,” or returning to the workplace?

That’s a view expressed in an article by Brian J. O’Connor, writing for SmartAsset via Yahoo! Finance.

“Retirees who find themselves hit by higher prices, lower stock returns and big health care bills might consider boosting their bank accounts by heading back to work – and employers are waiting to welcome older workers back with open arms,” he writes.

“Big health bills” are more of a U.S. problem than one we Canadians face, although long-term care costs can be eye-opening even here.

The article suggests having the option of returning to work could be a “linchpin” for your retirement plan. That’s because your work experience is more highly valued than ever thanks to the lack of new folks coming up the system to fill your job, the article continues.

“These employees are valuable because they are seasoned, and that’s not always easy to find today,” Charlotte Flores of BH Companies states in the article.

The article goes on to note that of the five million Americans who left the U.S. workforce during the pandemic, “more than two-thirds were over 55.” Now there are five job openings for every three U.S. workers.

“Employers are not only eager to hire experienced older workers, but they’re also open to bringing in retirees who’ve been out of the workforce for several years,” the article continues.

This rehiring of otherwise retired workers is called a “returnship,” the article explains. Large U.S. companies, such as Goldman Sachs, Accenture, Microsoft and Amazon have developed “returnship” programs.

“The programs are designed to give returning workers training, mentoring, a chance to learn or brush up on skills and lessons on how to navigate the current work culture. The trend is so strong that there even are “career-reentry” firms that specialize in connecting employers with returning workers, such as iRelaunch, which works with 70 companies offering returnships, including posting openings,” the article states.

Another benefit of going back to work after retirement, the article says, is that you can either “delay or reduce withdrawals from retirement accounts,” a decision that “stretches out your retirement nest egg to lessen your longevity risk.”

Here in Canada, that certainly would be true of any withdrawals from a Tax Free Savings Account or from a non-registered investment account. We have heard of defined benefit pension plans in Canada that permit you to stop receiving pension payments (temporarily) if you return to work – and let you resume contributions. We haven’t heard of there being ways to temporarily pause withdrawals from a registered retirement income fund (RRIF), however.

Many observers here in Canada have talked about making it possible to delay RRIF withdrawals, and continue to contribute to RRSPs, until later in life. Save with SPP spoke to Prof. Luc Godbout on this topic in the spring.

It sure seems like the old days of full retirement – our dad left work at 62 and never did a single lick of work again for the remaining 27 years of his life – may be gone forever. Not saying that’s a bad thing – a little work keeps your mind sharp and social contacts alive – but the concept of full retirement at 65 does not appear to be as likely in the 2020s as it was 30 or 40 years ago.

Whether or not you plan to fully retire in your 60s, 70s or later, you’ll need some retirement income. Most Canadians lack workplace pension plans and must save on their own for retirement. Fortunately, the Saskatchewan Pension Plan is available to any Canadian with RRSP room. This do-it-yourself pension plan invests the contributions you make, pools them and invests them at a low cost, and at retirement, turns them into an income stream. You can even get a lifetime annuity! Check out this wonderful retirement partner today!

Join the Wealthcare Revolution – follow SPP on Facebook!

As 2018 rolls along to its grand finale, it’s a good time to reflect on the year that was.

Today, however, we want to look at something a little different – let’s have a look at what not to do when it comes to saving, the worst ways to save of 2018.

At the Money & Career Cheatsheet blog, there are several “worst practices” for saving outlined.

First, the blog notes, don’t always buy everything in bulk. “You’ll just end up spending more money in the long run,” the blog advises. “Let’s be realistic. Are you really going to use these bulk items in a reasonable amount of time? And where are you going to store all of this stuff?” Better, the blog advises to “cherry pick” and buy items when they are on sale at a regular grocery store.

Other tips from the folks at Cheatsheet: avoid store credit cards, which are easier to get but often have the highest interest rates, and don’t skip on retirement savings. “Don’t make excuses for why you can’t save for retirement. You’ll be sorry you didn’t start earlier. Start contributing to your retirement fund as early as possible,” the blog advises.

At the Smartasset blog, the biggest savings mistake identified is not paying off “bad” debt. “Debts such as credit card and personal loans stick with you and tend to have higher interest rates than secured debt,” the blog post explains. “Thus, the longer it takes you to pay these debts off, the more you end up paying in the long run.”

The Sweating the Big Stuff blog says eating at fast food restaurants may feel cheaper than dining at a restaurant, but the less-healthy food will cost you your health. As well, the blog says BOGO-type deals are rarely a great thing. “When you `get one free when you buy four,’” it means you’re buying four when you only wanted one; it means you’re wasting money, not saving it! Think really hard before you get that `great’ deal that’s making you think you’re such a genius,” the blog advises.

The Slice blog echoes some of these points, but adds a few more – paying only the minimum on your credit cards, and cheaping out on insurance – going for the lowest rate rather than focusing on what you want covered.

Save With SPP can think of a few more. It’s always better to save up for a vacation than to get it on credit. You’ll leave the beach and will head home to an inbox full of bills. Using credit card points must be done right. The points are great, but greater if you aren’t running a balance on your cards. Pay the card off each month or as quick as you can. Another one that jumps to mind is paying debt with debt; it seems to fix your short-term problem but creates a much bigger long-term problem.

As we get ready to enjoy the end of 2018, let’s all think about ditching any bad savings habits we have in 2019. We can, instead, make a resolution to do what Cheatsheet advises, and direct some real savings to retirement. The Saskatchewan Pension Plan offers a very flexible way to do just that.

Written by Martin Biefer

Martin Biefer is Senior Pension Writer at Avery & Kerr Communications in Nepean, Ontario. After a 35-year career as a reporter, editor and pension communicator, Martin is enjoying life as a freelance writer. He’s a mediocre golfer, hopeful darts player and beginner line dancer who enjoys classic rock and sports, especially football. He and his wife Laura live with their Sheltie, Duncan, and their cat, Toobins. You can follow him on Twitter – his handle is @AveryKerr22