“History never repeats itself; man always does.”

This quote from Voltaire kicks off Morgan Housel’s thought-provoking and well-researched look at how our past behaviour and actions, as a society, can help us try and prepare for what’s ahead.

Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, the book tells us, is often asked “what’s going to change in the next 10 years,” but rarely is asked “what’s not going to change in the next 10 years…. And I submit to you, that the second question is actually the more important of the two.”

“Things that never change,” explains Houssel, “are important because you can put so much confidence in knowing how they shape the future… the same philosophy works in almost all areas of life.”

And while we are pretty good at predicting the future, it’s surprises that throw us, he continues.

No one predicted The Great Depression, he explains. Why?

“Either everyone in the past was blinded by delusion,” he posits, meaning they didn’t want to see the crash coming, or “everyone in the present is fooled by hindsight.”

“The biggest news, the biggest risks, the most consequential events are always what you don’t see coming,” he explains.

Another category Housel talks about is overall happiness.

A problem that works against us is the tendency to “compare yourself to your peers,” he writes. We want the same things that the super-rich purport to have, at least according to social media.

“You see the cars the other people drive, the homes they live in, the expensive schools they go to… The ability to say `I want that, why don’t I have that? Why does he get it but I don’t,’ is so much greater than it was just a few generations ago,” he explains.

Indeed, he points out, in the 1950s people earned less, but were okay with living in smaller homes, not having healthcare, wearing hand-me-downs and camping instead of staying in hotels because everyone else was in the same boat, doing the same things.

“Economic growth accrued straight to happiness. People weren’t just better off, they felt better off,” he explains of the 1950s.

In a later chapter, he stresses the importance of “the story,” versus the numbers.

He notes that Jeff Bezos once said “the thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There’s something wrong with the way you are measuring it.”

It’s not easy to measure things like “feelings, emotions, and fears, all of which regulate what we’re capable of,” he explains.

As an example of data versus “the story,” he quotes investor Jim Grant:

“To suppose that the value of a common stock is determined purely by a corporation’s earnings discounted by the relevant interest rates and adjusted for the marginal tax rate is to forget that people have burned witches, gone to war on a whim, risen to the defence of Joseph Stalin and believed Orson Welles when he told them over the radio that the Martians had landed.”

“Every investment price,” writes Housel, “every market valuation, is just a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow.”

Near the end of the book, he makes three interesting points about navigating the future:

• “When good and honest people can be incentivized into crazy behaviour, it’s easy to underestimate the odds of the world going off the rails.”
• “Unsustainable things can last longer than you anticipate.”
• “A good question to ask is `which of my current views would change if my incentives were different.’”

A final bit of advice, in the chapter “Wounds Heal, Scars Last,” is that “people tend to have short memories. Most of the time they can forget about bad experiences and fail to heed lessons previously learned. But hard-core stress leaves a scar.”

This is a book that makes you think. There’s a lot of great ideas and stories in this book that a short review can’t fully explore – it’s definitely worth adding to your home library.

These days, the idea of working at one place for decades seems unlikely, a fate only a few of us get. You’re more likely to work at many different jobs in your career. All those career changes don’t have to impact your retirement saving.

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Morgan Housel’s The Psychology of Money makes an interesting, anecdote-filled case that financial success is more about patience, and even luck, than the “technical side of money.”

It’s not, he writes, that the technical how-to advice and education about money is “bad or wrong,” but that “knowing what to do tells you nothing about what happens in your head when you try to do it.”

As an example, he notes that a big factor in success with stocks is when you were born — something we all have no control over. “If you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That’s an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s, adjusted for inflation.” So people in those two groups will have a different personal history with stock investing, and different levels of willingness to enter the market, he explains.

It’s the same story for inflation, he notes. Those born in the 1960s remember it, those born in the 1990s are experiencing it for the first time.

Next, he notes that those with lower incomes have more faith and hope in lottery winnings than those with higher incomes.

“The lowest-income households in the U.S. on average spend $412 a year on lotto tickets, four times the amount of those in the highest income groups,” he notes. Does that factor correlate with another stat, that 40 per cent of Americans say “they couldn’t come up with $400 in an emergency.” They are, he writes, “blowing their safety nets on something with a one-in-millions chance of hitting it big.”

Looking at retirement, he writes that since the 1980s, “the idea that everyone deserves, and should have, a dignified retirement took hold. And the way to get that dignified retirement has been an expectation that everyone will save and invest their own money.” But, he continues, it is not happening. “It should surprise no one that many of us are bad at saving and investing for retirement.”

In a chapter titled Luck & Risk, Housel notes that Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller was once asked what he would like to know about investing “that we can’t know.”

“The exact role of luck in successful outcomes,” replied Shiller.

On risk, Housel stresses the concept of having “enough,” and not necessarily needing more.

“There is no reason to risk what you have and need for what you don’t have and don’t need,” he explains. Watch out if “the taste of having more — more money, more power, more prestige — increases ambition faster than satisfaction,” he warns.

A long-term approach to investing can work well, he writes. He notes that famed investor Warren Buffett “began serious investing when he was 10 years old,” and by 30, had a net worth of one million. That has grown to $84.5 billion at the time the book was written, Housel notes.

But if Buffett had been “a more normal person, spending his teens and 20s exploring the world and finding his passion,” and had $25,000 as his net worth at age 30, he would have — everything else being the same — just $11.9 million today.

“His skill is investing, but his secret is time,” explains Housel.

Getting money is one thing, he writes, but keeping it is another.

Buffett, writes Housel, avoided debt, panic selling “during the 14 recessions he’s lived through,” kept his reputation intact and “didn’t burn himself out or quit or retire.”

“He survived. Survival gave him longevity. And longevity — investing consistently from age 10 to at least age 89 — is what made compounding work wonders,” Housel writes.

So, he explains, while planning is important, “the most important part of every plan is to plan on the plan not going according to the plan.”

Rather than focusing on getting big returns, think about survival, and being “financially unbreakable… if I’m unbreakable I actually think I’ll get the biggest returns, because I’ll be able to stick around long enough for compounding to work wonders.”

Unlike flying an airplane, you don’t have to be right all the time in investing. “If you’re a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad,” he explains.

Being a saver is critical, he adds.

“Building wealth has little to do with your income or investment returns, and lots to do with your savings rate,” he writes. “Personal savings and frugality — finance’s conservation and efficiency — are parts of the money equation that are more in your control and have a 100 per cent chance of being as effective in the future as they are today.”

He spends time on the of “leaving room for error” with investments. “The person with enough room for error in part of their strategy (cash) has an edge over the person who gets wiped out, game over, insert more tokens, when they’re wrong.”

Some concluding thoughts from Housel are that “saving money is the gap between your ego and your income, and wealth is what you don’t see. So wealth is created by suppressing what you could buy today in order to have more stuff or more options in the future.”

Manage money in a way that lets you sleep at night, increase your investing time horizon, and “become OK with a lot of things going wrong. You could be wrong half the time and still make a fortune.”

It’s hard to do justice to such a thought-provoking book in a short interview, so consider adding The Psychology of Money to your personal finance library.

The idea of starting retirement savings early is a good one, and as the author notes, not everyone has access to a workplace pension or retirement program. If you’re in that boat, take a look at the Saskatchewan Pension Plan (SPP). Under SPP’s new rules, you can contribute any amount to the plan each year, up to your available registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) limit! And if you are transferring money into SPP from an RRSP, there is no longer an annual limit — you can transfer any amount into your SPP nest egg. Contributing to SPP is now limitless!

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