There was a time, way back when, when you could easily make an annual return of 16 per cent or more simply by signing up for payroll Canada Savings Bonds at work.

Are those days coming back, at least in part, now that interest rates on guaranteed investment certificates have topped the five per cent mark? Save with SPP took a look around to see what’s happening — for the first time in decades — in fixed-income investing.

A recent Wealth Professional article declares that “bonds are back.”

“After a long period in the unfashionable doldrums, fixed income has come roaring back with some tempting offerings that could be music to the ears of wealth managers,” writes Catherine Lafferty.

She quotes Macan Nia of Manulife as saying “a lot of the issues in the financial markets and for financial advisors was [around] this search for yield and how we drive income for our clients that are retiring. The good news is right now we simply clip the coupon. We believe they are attractive opportunities just in yield.”

OK, so bonds are suddenly a better investment. What about other forms of fixed income?

You don’t have to buy bonds (which pay interest, normally once or twice a year, until they mature) to benefit from today’s higher interest rates, writes Rob Carrick in The Globe and Mail.

Even a simple high interest savings account (HISA) can pay you “2.5 to 4.1 per cent right now,” he writes. A nice thing about HISAs is that your money is not tied up for a set period of time as it would be with a bond or guaranteed investment certificate (GIC).

There are now even exchange-traded funds that are basically an index fund of HISAs, Carrick notes.

“ETF HISAs offer after-fee yields around five per cent right now, but you may have to pay brokerage commissions to buy and sell,” he writes. There are also “mutual fund-style HISAs” that offer yields of 4.2 to 4.6 per cent, he continues.

The good old GIC is also looking more attractive, Carrick writes.

“If you have money to lock into GICs and want a great rate, now’s not a bad time to buy because there are 5 per cent yields available for terms of one, two, three and, in the case of EQ Bank, five years,” he writes. There are also cashable GICs — you can cash them in whenever you want — but those pay roughly one to 1.5 per cent less in interest, Carrick notes.

Equitable Bank’s Mahima Poddar tells Global News that the rise in interest rates has definitely rekindled interest in GICs.

“I do think we’re going to see more and more people going back to GICs,” she tells Global. There is a lot of downside risk these days to equity investment, she continues, with many people getting “burned.”

“When you compare that to a guaranteed five per cent rate with no downside risk, it becomes incredibly attractive,” she tells Global.

We have had several friends and family members over the years who prefer the lower risk of interest investing over the potentially higher returns from equities. Having lost a shirt or two on “can’t miss” fibre-optic network construction companies and the odd copper mining firm in the past, we must concede that risk is, well, pretty risky.

It’s probably safer to have a balanced approach, and that’s exactly how the Saskatchewan Pension Plan runs its retirement savings pool. The Balanced Fund is 41 per cent invested in Canadian, U.S. and International equities. On the interest side, bonds, private debt, mortgages and money market investments represent 30 per cent of assets. The rest of the fund is invested in what are called “alternative” investment such as infrastructure and real estate. Check out SPP today!

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What the return of inflation will look like for wages, debt and savings

Writing in the Financial Post, noted financial writer Jason Heath takes a look at what the return of inflation will mean for us.

He reports that in February, the consumer price index (CPI) jumped by 5.7 per cent, which “is the biggest increase since August 1991, when inflation was six per cent.”

Since that long-ago peak, he writes, inflation has fallen to much lower levels. Over the last 30 years, it has averaged 1.9 per cent, Heath explains. And, he adds, the Bank of Canada over the intervening years has put policies in place, as required, to keep the brakes on inflation.

Managing inflation through central bank policy is a lot like turning around an ocean liner – you have to make small adjustments over a long time frame. For interest rates, corrective action takes place “typically within a horizon of six to eight quarters,” or a year and a half to two years, he writes.

Despite that effort, our old friend is back, and not just here in Canada. Inflation rates are at 7.9 per cent in the U.S., 6.1 per cent in India, and at 5.9 per cent in the “Eurozone,” he writes.

He then takes a look at its likely impacts.

Higher wages: First, he writes, employers need to look at wage increases. Hourly wages have increased by just 1.8 per cent since 2020. “If inflation remains persistently high, workers whose earnings cannot keep up with the rate of inflation are effectively getting a pay cut,” he notes. They’ll need more wages to pay for the higher price of goods and services, he explains.

Higher interest on debt: If you are carrying a lot of debt, higher interest rates will cut into your cash flow, he writes.

“That cash flow decrease may not be immediate but many mortgage borrowers will see their amortization period increase as more of their monthly payments go to interest and their debt-free date is delayed. This is an important consideration for young homebuyers if they are going to balance their home ownership goals with other priorities like retirement,” he writes.

Even an increase of two per cent in borrowing rates, Heath explains, could add 13 years to your mortgage if you don’t change your monthly payment amount.

Inflation protection for retirees: Heath points out that government pensions – the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security – are indexed, and are increased annually based on the rate of inflation. This, he says, is a “powerful” hedge against inflation.

Interest rates are a consideration for those living on savings. If interest rates on your investments don’t keep up with inflation, it will take less time for your portfolio to decline to zero. But if interest rates are higher than inflation, you may still have tens of thousands of dollars in savings 25 or 30 years after you start drawing down your savings.

“In the short run, higher inflation is concerning and can lead to uncertainty. The Bank of Canada is likely to continue to increase interest rates to counter the higher cost of living. There is a risk the rate increases have taken too long to start or may now happen more quickly than expected, and that may have implications for savers, retirees, the economy, and the stock market,” he concludes.

Save with SPP was a youngish reporter in 1991, and remembers that the guaranteed investment certificate (GIC) was still a big tool in one’s investment portfolio in those days, as was the Canada Savings Bond. While interest on such products had been double digit a decade earlier, it was still nice to get five or six per cent interest each year without having to invest in riskier stocks or equity mutual funds.

And while it is exciting to imagine our wages going up by five per cent or more, it is rendered less exciting when the cost of everything is also going up. It was strange, on our recent trip to Whitby to see our new grandbaby, to be “excited” to find gas at the pump for under $1.70 per litre.

What’s a retirement saver to do? If you are following a balanced approach, with exposure to multiple asset classes, you should fare pretty well in a challenging investment environment. An example of that is the Saskatchewan Pension Plan’s Balanced Fund. It has eight distinct and different investment categories in which to place your savings “eggs,” including Canadian, U.S. and Non-North American Equity, Bonds, Mortgages, Real Estate, Short-Term Investments and Infrastructure. If one category is having challenges, it is quite likely that others are performing well – that’s the advantage of a balanced approach. Check out SPP today!

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If you are one of the many Canadians who is a decade (or less) away from retirement, and haven’t had time to really think about it, there’s an ideal book out there for you.  The Procrastinator’s Guide to Retirement by David Trahair walks you through all the decisions you’ll need to make, and the strategies you may want to employ, to have a solid retirement – soon.

Trahair makes the point early that you need to track your current spending to have an accurate sense of how much you need to save to fund your retirement.  He says the old 70 per cent rule – that you will be comfortable if you can save up enough to live on 70 per cent of your pre-retirement income – is “problematic… it may be the right answer for one person, but totally wrong for you because your financial situation is as individual as your fingerprints.” Knowing what you spend now, and will spend when retired, is a key piece of knowledge when setting savings targets, he explains.

Through the deft use of charts, examples and worksheets, Trahair explains that most of us have “golden opportunity” years for retirement savings when we have surplus funds, thanks to paying off a car loan, or having a child graduate from university. What you do during these periods of excess money “can make or break” your retirement plans, he advises, noting that an obvious destination for some of this cash is retirement savings.

He looks in detail at whether it’s a good idea to save for retirement in a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or pay off debt, like credit cards or mortgages, first. Trahair says anyone with high-interest credit card debt should pay that off first before saving for retirement, because of the “rate of return” you get by eliminating the debt.

“A lack of cash outflow is as good as a cash inflow, and better if that inflow is taxed,” he explains. In other words, all the money once spent on paying down the credit card is now in your pocket instead.

Whether to pay down the mortgage versus saving for retirement is a trickier calculation (Trahair has a spreadsheet for you to make your own choice). He says the “commonsensical” approach is to make an RRSP payment and then put the refund on the mortgage. However, later in the book he warns of the dangers of not paying off the mortgage until after retirement.

“If you went into retirement with a $200,000 mortgage, you’d need $293,254.75 extra in your RRSP just to break even,” he writes. “Put another way, you’d be just as well off as someone who had a zero-mortgage balance and $293,254.74 less in their RRSP.”

There’s a lot of good stuff here. There’s a chapter on selecting an investment advisor, and good advice for those investing on their own. He warns that those saving later in life often look for higher returns, which can be risky. “Hoping for a 10 per cent rate of return to solve your problems will mean you’ll have to take extreme risk… chances are good this strategy will result in dismal failure. So, he advises, have a disciplined investment approach, and manage risks. A rule of thumb he likes is the one that suggests 100 minus your age should be the percentage of your portfolio that is in fixed income. The rest should be in the stock market.

Later, he explains how GICs are his favourite investment, especially when held in RRSPs, Registered Retirement Income Funds (RRIFs) and Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs).

He examines the concept of how much you’ll spend in retirement, noting that some costs, like Canada Pension Plan (CPP) contributions, car operating costs, dining out and dry cleaning will drop once you’re no longer going to work, well-dressed.

He talks about how you can maximize both CPP and Old Age Security benefits by deferring them until later – and covers the pros and cons of doing so.

Later chapters cover the “risk” of living a long life, the “snowball” versus “avalanche” methods of debt reducing, and estate planning.

This is an excellent resource for all aspects of retirement planning, and – even better – it is written for a Canadian audience.

If your retirement plan includes the Saskatchewan Pension Plan, you’re already getting professional investing help at a low fee of just 0.83 per cent in 2020. SPP manages investment risks for you – and has chalked up an impressive rate of return of 8 per cent since its inception 35 years ago. Why not to check out SPP today!

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If there’s one thing almost everyone can agree on, it was great to celebrate – in a limited, socially distanced way – the end of the brutal year 2020, when the pandemic slammed the world.

It’s been a particularly frightening year for those of us struggling to save a few bucks for our retirement.

Back in February, when the COVID-19 crisis was beginning to take effect, stock markets dropped sharply, erasing “four years of gains,” reports Maclean’s . The market’s crash was based on fear – “not knowing how severe COVID was going to be in terms of morbidity,” the magazine explains.

In addition to the shocking numbers of deaths and sickness COVID-19 delivered, it also walloped our economy. According to Wealth Professional, quoting Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, Canada’s economy “is expected to shrink by 5.5 per cent for the whole of 2020, with the initial rebound following the First Wave of the pandemic having eased.”

We all know what he’s talking about here – the First Wave led to lockdowns and business closures, and high unemployment. There was a break in the summer as much of the shuttered economy reopened, but now the Second Wave is causing lockdowns and job losses once again.

The usual safe harbour for savers when the economy (and stock markets) are volatile is in fixed income, investments that pay us interest. However, in order to reboot the economy, the Bank of Canada is planning to keep interest rates low “until 2023,” Macklem states in the Wealth Professional article.

Those “low for long” interest rates mean it is not the best time to buy bonds or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs). Some savers looked to the real estate investment trust (REIT) market to replace the income their fixed income was providing, notes The Motley Fool. While some REITs, notably industrial ones, and those involved with warehousing and data centres did well, “retail and hospitality REITs… had lost 80 per cent of their value at the market’s bottom.” The Motley Fool article wonders how investments in commercial office and retail space will fare in a world where most people are working from home.

Now that 2020 is behind us, there are signs of better days ahead.

The markets in Canada and around the world are now recovering due to late-year news that effective vaccines are nearly ready for distribution.

Dave Randall of Reuters, writing in the Chronicle-Herald, notes that November was “a record-breaking month as the prospect of a vaccine-driven economic recovery next year and further central bank stimulus measures eclipsed immediate concerns about the spiking coronavirus pandemic.”

Let’s review all this. The pandemic hit us hard, sending markets down, throwing people out of work, shrinking the economy. Central banks had to cut interest rates to reduce borrowing costs. That’s great for borrowing but less great for saving. Those looking to replace the interest they weren’t getting had to navigate a market that dropped by 40-50 per cent in the late winter and is recovering, and they had to face the reality that some sectors were doing far better than others.

2021, however, looks like a better year. Market optimism is returning, and once the vaccines start to get distributed around the country, we will (hopefully) start to see a return to more normal times, with no lockdowns and business restrictions.

The point of retirement saving is putting money away for the future, which may be quite soon or decades away. If you’re worried about saving on your own for retirement during these volatile days, you might consider teaming up with the Saskatchewan Pension Plan. With SPP, experts run the money at an extremely low cost. We all have enough to worry about these days – let SPP take the worry of pandemic-era retirement saving off of your plate!

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Since the days where you could sock away money in a guaranteed investment certificate (GIC) and get interest rates in the teens are long, long gone, a lot of savers are looking at other ways to make their money grow.

And often, based on what people talk about on the putting green, in the curling rink, or at the gym, investing in stocks seems to be working out for some folks. Problem is it’s one of those things that we hear a lot about, but tend not to know a lot about.

Enter The Canadian’s Guide to Stock Investing by Andrew Dagys and Paul Mladjenvoic. This slim but fact-packed volume teaches you all the information you need to know to get started in stock investing.

The book explains that there is a difference between investing, saving, and speculating. Investing, the authors write, “is the act of putting your current funds into securities or tangible assets to gain future appreciation, income, or both.” That’s different from saving, “the safe accumulation of funds for a future use,” or speculating, “the financial world’s equivalent of gambling.”

The authors then explain the difference between “growth investing” and “income investing.” When you are investing for growth, they note, “you want your money to grow… if you bought a stock for $8 per share and now its value is $30 per share, your investment has grown by $22 per share – that’s appreciation.” Growth, they write, is probably the number one reason people invest in stock.

Income investors are looking more at ways “to invest in the stock market as a means of providing a steady income and preserving risks.” They aren’t, the book notes, looking for stock values to go through the ceiling; instead “they need stocks that perform well consistently,” and that pay dividends.

Dividends, the authors explain, are usually paid quarterly and aren’t the same as interest. Dividends are paid to owners (interest is paid to creditors), and when you own a stock you are a shareholder, or partial owner, of the company that issued the stock. “When you buy stock, you buy a piece of that company,” the authors point out.

So how do you pick a good stock, either for growth or income? First, the authors say, you need to think about supply and demand, “the relationship between what’s available (the supply) and what people want and are willing to pay for (the demand).” Is the company making or selling something that people want, the authors explain, or is it a company “that makes elephant-foot umbrella stands… that has an oversupply, and nobody wants to buy them anyway.”

Next, there’s cause and effect, or, as the authors explain, logic. If you read a news report that says sales of tables are plummeting, “do you rush out and invest in companies that sell chairs or manufacture tablecloths?” On the other hand, good news about sales may be a reason to consider buying shares, the authors explain.

Another factor to think about is “economic effects from government actions.” A government “can willfully (or even accidentally) cause a company to go bankrupt, disrupt an entire industry, or even cause a depression.” Pay attention to what the government is saying if it has an effect on something you are thinking of buying into as a shareholder, the authors note.

The book explains how to look at a company’s balance sheet to figure out its net worth, profitability, and performance.

Other general tips from the book include having “a cushion of money” for emergencies, cutting back on your debt, get as much job security as you can and be correctly insured.

On the investment side, the authors urge diversification – don’t put all your money in one stock, one industry, or one type of investment.

Final chapters explain some of the tax impacts of investing, whether it is within a registered retirement account or a tax-free savings account.

There is a lot covered here, and this book is a great help for any investor.

The Saskatchewan Pension Plan follows many of these principles. During the accumulation period you can choose a growth fund for your savings, and when you go to collect your SPP annuity, it is paid from a fund that is focused on capital retention and fixed-income investments. Be sure to check them out today.

Written by Martin Biefer
	Martin Biefer is Senior Pension Writer at Avery & Kerr Communications in Nepean, Ontario. A veteran reporter, editor and pension communicator, he’s now a freelancer. Interests include golf, line dancing and classic rock. He and his wife live with their Shelties, Duncan and Phoebe, and cat, Toobins. You can follow him on Twitter – his handle is @AveryKerr22

A look at the best of the Internet, from an SPP point of view

Women have to plan for a longer retirement

What works for a man may not work for a woman, and that sentiment is true when it comes to retirement planning.

According to the Young and Thrifty blog, women need “to know how to save more than men.”

They need to save more than the conventional 10 per cent of salary, the post notes, or else they could risk not having enough money in retirement. “Advice given to women about how much to save for retirement may be so far off base that, according to the Broadbent Institute, 28 per cent of senior women are currently living in poverty in Canada,” the article notes.

The article notes that as a starting point, women earn less than men, about 87 cents for every dollar earned by a man. That means less to save for retirement, the blog notes.

Secondly, women “tend to invest more conservatively than men,” the article advises. Women, the article notes, tend to shy away from riskier market investments in favour of GICs and high-interest savings accounts. “While these can be great short-term strategies, these investments offer a lower return, stunting the growth of the money over the long term,” the blog reports.

So the problem is that women “are earning less, saving less, and generally choosing investment strategies that yield less,” the article notes. “But because women generally live longer than men, they need to squirrel away more money in their nest egg.”

The article notes that women tend to live four years longer than men, meaning a more expensive retirement. “Four years longer doesn’t seem that long, but if you assume a retirement age of 65, that’s 28 per cent more years spent in retirement,” the article warns.

A final factor – women tend to leave the workforce to raise children, meaning they don’t have as long a career or as many opportunities to save, the article says.

What to do?

The article advises women to consider sharing some of their parental leave time with their spouses, so that they aren’t off work as much. If you are off on a leave, a spouse can open a spousal RRSP to ensure that retirement savings continues while you are caring for a child. The article urges “more aggressive investments” by women, including the use of exchange-traded funds or ETFs, so that you are getting more benefit from the stock market.

And finally, the article says the savings target for women should be 18 per cent of income, as opposed to 10 per cent for men.

Interestingly, the Saskatchewan Pension Plan was invented with women in mind. The SPP started out as a way for busy women and moms to have their own way to save. The SPP offers professional investing at a very low cost, is scaleable (you can put more in when you make more, and less in when you make less) and very importantly, offers a simple way to turn those savings into reliable monthly lifetime income when you leave the workforce.

It’s an ideal tool for women who want to upgrade their retirement savings – check them out today.

Written by Martin Biefer
	Martin Biefer is Senior Pension Writer at Avery & Kerr Communications in Nepean, Ontario. A veteran reporter, editor and pension communicator, he’s now a freelancer. Interests include golf, line dancing, classic rock, and darts. You can follow him on Twitter – his handle is @AveryKerr22

A look at the best of the Internet, from an SPP point of view

Feds want input on how to make retirement more secure

Retirement security is a hard thing to define, particularly if you are not yet retired.

Some imagine it as an upgrade from working – you’ll have more time to do all the things you want, no more slogging away at the office. Others worry if they will have enough savings to fund the kind of life they have now – or even a more austere one.

Workplace pensions are far rarer than they were in decades past, leaving most of us to have to create our own retirement security.

The federal government, reports Wealth Professional, is opening public consultations on the growing problem of retirement security. It wants to take a harder look at pension regulations, as well as (and perhaps, the article says, in light of the Sears pension debacle), “insolvency and bankruptcy laws.”

The consultations want to “improve retirement security for Canadians” by looking at ways to ensure workplace plans are “well funded,” and corporate decisions are better aligned with “pensioner and employee interests.” The government, the article notes, talks about the improvements that have been made to government pensions, such as the OAS and GIS.

We learned recently that Canadians ought to have saved 11 times their salary by the time they are ready to retire. But in an era when workplace pensions are scarce, how can such saving be encouraged? And how do we ensure folks don’t dip into the savings before it’s time to live off them?

If RRSP savings were locked in people wouldn’t be able to withdraw money until they reach retirement age, and at that point, if funds were be converted to an income stream people would be assure of income for life.

A second idea might be to add a voluntary savings component to the CPP; this has been floated before.

Another idea might be to create investment funds for the OAS and the GIS. Right now these benefits are paid 100 per cent via taxpayer dollars. If, as is the case with the CPP, some of the dollars could be diverted to investment funds, maybe that taxpayer portion of future benefit costs could be reduced.

The real challenge is getting people to save more. One can argue truthfully that there are plenty of great savings vehicles out there that just aren’t being fully used. Could the feds offer some new tax incentives to put money away?

It will be interesting to see what the government finds out on this important topic.

If you don’t have a pension plan at work – and even if you do – it’s always wise to put away money for retirement, which will come sooner than you think. The Saskatchewan Pension Plan offers a simple, well-run savings vehicle that is flexible and effective. You decide how much to put away, you can ramp it up or down over your career, and you get multiple options on how to receive a pension when the golden handshake comes. Be sure to check it out.

Written by Martin Biefer

Martin Biefer is Senior Pension Writer at Avery & Kerr Communications in Nepean, Ontario. After a 35-year career as a reporter, editor and pension communicator, Martin is enjoying life as a freelance writer. He’s a mediocre golfer, hopeful darts player and beginner line dancer who enjoys classic rock and sports, especially football. He and his wife Laura live with their Sheltie, Duncan, and their cat, Toobins. You can follow him on Twitter – his handle is @AveryKerr22

A look at the best of the Internet, from an SPP point of view

Debt beginning to restrict retiree cash flow
When the boomers’ parents got set to retire, they advised their kids to – like them – be sure to not bring a penny of debt into retirement. They dutifully paid off their $25,000 mortgages, saved in their double-digit interest GICs, and merrily rode into retirement.

Easier said than done for those of us who are younger.

According to Which Mortgage, citing Equifax Canada statistics, the debt on Canadian credit cards alone is a whopping $599 billion. As interest rates on those cards begin to tick up, people are less and less able to pay the full credit due each month, the article notes. In fact, only around 56 per cent do pay the full amount owing, and the rest are nudging into delinquency, the story continues. And the total debt of Canadians including mortgages is $1.83 trillion, the article says.

So we’re not able to emulate our parents and grandparents.

A CBC story from earlier in the year found that 20 per cent of retirees are still paying mortgages, and 66 per cent are “still carrying credit card debt.” On average, the report says, citing Sun Life data, Canadian retirees had $11,204 in non-mortgage debt.

Experts disagree as to whether this means retirees are facing hardship. Theoretically, as long as they can still pay off the bad debt (credit) and good debt (mortgage) they will eventually be OK. But an obvious lesson for younger retirement savers is this – try not to be like your parents, and try to get to retirement without debt. You have to try and do both.

A rule of thumb that Save With SPP has heard over the years re debt and retirement savings is the 80/20 rule. While you are young, direct 80 per cent of extra money onto killing debt, but put away 20 per cent for retirement. The same ratio works for retirees trying to pay down debt. You can tweak things once the debt is gone.

A nice way to build your retirement savings gradually while killing off debt is through the Saskatchewan Pension Plan. You can start small and increase your savings rate over time.

Top retirement goals
The Good Financial Cents blog talks about “good retirement goals that everyone should have.”

These include:

• Have a well stocked emergency fund
• Get out of debt completely
• Plan to retire early
• Have multiple income streams

Some great advice here. It is very difficult to visualize life in retirement when you are still working, so planning is a great ally to a low-stress future.

Written by Martin Biefer

Martin Biefer is Senior Pension Writer at Avery & Kerr Communications in Nepean, Ontario. After a 35-year career as a reporter, editor and pension communicator, Martin is enjoying life as a freelance writer. He’s a mediocre golfer, hopeful darts player and beginner line dancer who enjoys classic rock and sports, especially football. He and his wife Laura live with their Sheltie, Duncan, and their cat, Toobins. You can follow him on Twitter – his handle is @AveryKerr22

 

Welcome to a wonderful New Year. Most of the country has spent the last few weeks in a deep freeze with Saskatoon temperatures dipping below -30 C. It’s even -21 C in Toronto!

Nevertheless, residents of Spy Hill, Saskatchewan where the temperature was -43 with the wind chill on Christmas morning displayed their very warm hearts when they sprang to action on Christmas Day to help passengers on a frozen train.

Here is what a few of our favourite personal finance writers have been writing about during the holidays.

Jonathan Chevreau on the Financial Independence Hub reviewed the New York Times best seller Younger Next Year – Live Strong, Fit and Sexy Until You’re 80 and Beyond. Chevreau said, “The book is all about taking control of your personal longevity, chiefly  through proper nutrition but first and foremost by engaging in daily exercise: aerobic activity at least four days a week and weight training for another two days a week — week in and week out, for the rest of your life.”

Boomer & Echo’s Robb Engen wrote Save More Tomorrow: The Procrastinator’s Guide To Saving Money. He discussed behavioural economists Shlomo Benartzi and Richard Thaler’s Save More Tomorrow program which not only suggests that monthly savings be automated but that savings rates be automatically increased when individuals get raises or earn more money from side hacks or freelance gigs.

Bridget Casey from Money After Graduation encouraged readers to see through their financial blind spots. “Reducing your spending and increasing your income by any amount is always good for your net worth, but if you’re looking to get the most bang for your buck, your efforts should be directed towards major wins ahead of small victories. A good exercise is to identify the three largest expenses in your budget and try to reduce them by 15% each or more,” she suggests.

Barry Choi explained on Money We Have why he is changing careers after 18 years. It was hard to walk away from a well-paid job in television but with a young baby, working the 3 PM to midnight shift was no longer sustainable. He got a part-time position as an editor for RateHub three days a week and he plans to continue writing for a variety of travel and other publications. Although he took a pay cut to leave his full-time position, his financial advisor helped him to realize he doesn’t need to make nearly as much as he thought to maintain the family’s lifestyle.

And finally, Globe and Mail personal finance columnist Rob Carrick offers the following  eight dos and don’ts for your personal finances in 2018:

• DO brace for higher borrowing costs.
• DON’T expect much improvement on savings rates.
• DO expect more hysteria about cryptocurrencies
• DON’T buy in unless you have the right mindset
• DO be cautious with your investment portfolio
• DON’T forget bonds or GICs
• DO emphasize fees as a controllable factor in your investing
• DON’T forget the value proposition

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Do you follow blogs with terrific ideas for saving money that haven’t been mentioned in our weekly “Best from the blogosphere?” Share the information on http://wp.me/P1YR2T-JR and your name will be entered in a quarterly draw for a gift card.

Written by Sheryl Smolkin
	Sheryl Smolkin LLB., LLM is a retired pension lawyer and President of Sheryl Smolkin & Associates Ltd. For over a decade, she has enjoyed a successful encore career as a freelance writer specializing in retirement, employee benefits and workplace issues. Sheryl and her husband Joel are empty-nesters, residing in Toronto with their cockapoo Rufus.

 

Today I’m interviewing Ed Rempel for savewithspp.com. Ed has been a Certified Financial Planner for over twenty years, and an accountant for thirty-three years. After building one of the largest financial planning practices in Canada, he partially retired in his fifties to focus on his passion for writing.

On his blog Unconventional Wisdom, Ed recently discussed his very interesting research* which reveals that if you want to withdraw 4% a year from your retirement portfolio without running out of money in 30 years of retirement, you need to hold significantly more equities than bonds in your portfolio. And that’s what we’re going to talk about today. Welcome, Ed.

Thanks a lot Sheryl.

Q: So how do you define a successful retirement for the purposes of your study?
A: For the purpose of the study, I defined a successful retirement as providing a reliable income rising with inflation for 30 years. That means you retire at 65 and your money lasts to age 95.

Q: Many financial planners use the 4% rule, which essentially says that you can withdraw $40,000 a year plus inflation for life from a $1 million portfolio. What do you think?
A: I have 146 years of data on stocks, bonds, cash, and inflation. I looked back at all those years to see what would have happened in the past if people retired that year, with each type of portfolio – e.g 100% bonds, 100% stocks plus various other permutations and combinations. 

I also tested these scenarios with inflation, to see what actually happened in the past. And the surprising result was that the more equities you actually have the safer your portfolio is. My whole blog is about “unconventional wisdom.” I love challenging ideas that most people believe aren’t really true and that’s one of them.

Q: So, to what extent does retirement success link to whether or not retirees follow the common of rule of thumb which suggests that they shouldn’t invest more than 100 minus their age in equities? For example, the portfolio of a 70-year old should include 70% bonds and 30% stocks.
A: We call that the age rule and its one of the things I tested in the study. I found that it actually gives you a significantly lower success rate. If you have 70% bonds at age 70, and the bond allocation is growing as you get older, that’s a very low component of stocks. In these circumstances you will have a much lower retirement success unless you withdraw a lower amount of income each year. 

Q: And what would the lower amount of income be in your view?
A: If you are more comfortable with a conservative 70% bond/30% stock portfolio, I would suggest you use a 3% not a 4% annual withdrawal rate. 

Q: Then what is the stock/bond allocation with the highest success rate, which we defined earlier as having enough money to withdraw 4% annually plus inflation, for thirty years?
A: The highest success rate will result if you are invested 70% or more in stocks. This is a very heavy allocation. And if you plan to withdraw more than 4% (i.e. 5% or 6% annually) the highest success rate will occur if you have 90% or 100% stocks. 

Q: What about bond or GIC investors? What percentage of their accounts can be safely withdrawn so their money will last thirty years?
A: I would suggest bond and GIC investors stick with 2.5%. That’s a little bit more than the interest that they’ll get, so they would be encroaching on their principal.

Q: Many financial advisors tell investors to keep cash equal to two years income, to draw on when their investments are down. Will that improve the possibility that these people won’t run out of money?
A: That is another example of “conventional wisdom” that people subscribe to. And I agree it kind of sounds logical, but my study found that holding two years’ worth of cash will not enhance your chances of making your money last for 30 years. In fact, there were a number of cases where keeping cash actually meant investors ran out of money, when without cash they didn’t.

The only possible benefit would be entirely behavioral. For example, if investments go down some people might get scared and cash them in. However, if they have cash they might leave their investments alone and just spend the cash for a little bit. But in general I don’t recommend this because I like to follow what actually works and I found no actual benefit in holding cash to cover expenses for several years after a market downturn. 

Q: Based on their risk tolerance then, how would you advise clients or readers who are nervous about holding a high percentage of equities in their portfolio?
A: They still need to stay within their risk tolerance. Therefore, even though the study showed a higher amount of equities is safer, and would give them a better retirement, that’s not what I’m recommending that everyone should necessarily do.

Q: So more conservative investors are just going to have to understand they will either need more money to meet their retirement goals or they will have to spend less?
A: Right. Adding bonds gives you a fixed income that reduces volatility that can make you less nervous. But then you have to lower income expectations. 

Q: Say that somebody does go with a higher stock allocation, what about the risk if there’s a stock market crash early in their retirement? How much will it throw out the calculations?
A: In the study I went back to 146 years, and there were a lot of big market crashes in the last 146 years, to see what actually happened. In actual fact that I found that historically this almost never a factor except in one very clear case for people who retired in 1929. It was actually inflation that eroded buying power over the years.

Q: What’s the biggest mistake people can make if there is a market decline?
A: The biggest mistake, in fact, I call it “the big mistake,” is to sell your investments, like sell your equities or switch to more conservative investments, after a market decline. The bottom line is you must be able to stay within your risk tolerance and stay invested in the market, through the inevitable crashes. That’s the only way you’re going to get the retirement income that you want.

Q: My last question, what is your best advice to retired investors, or investors close to retirement, regarding how to structure their portfolios.
A: Well the bottom line is to have a proper retirement income plan. You have to think through what the lifestyle is you want to have and how much money you need to support it. And then look at how you are comfortable investing and come up with a plan that gives you what you need. There will be trade-offs, but once you make a proper retirement income plan, then you can have a sustainable income throughout the rest of your life.

Thank you Ed! It was a pleasure to chat with you today.

Thanks a lot Sheryl.

*For the full report of Rempel’s research discussed above, see How to Reliably Maximize Your Retirement Income – Is the “4% Rule” Safe?

 

Written by Sheryl Smolkin
	Sheryl Smolkin LLB., LLM is a retired pension lawyer and President of Sheryl Smolkin & Associates Ltd. For over a decade, she has enjoyed a successful encore career as a freelance writer specializing in retirement, employee benefits and workplace issues. Sheryl and her husband Joel are empty-nesters, residing in Toronto with their cockapoo Rufus.