Having a withdrawal strategy should help your savings withstand inflation: McGugan

Reporting for the Globe and Mail, columnist Ian McGugan says retirees living off a nest egg of money need a strategy to cope with inflation.

“Unlike a truly rare disaster such as a global pandemic, the current inflationary outburst resembles a muted replay of the 1970s – and retirement planners have long used strategies designed to soldier through such episodes,” he writes.

He notes that a key tactic is the “four per cent rule,” developed by financial adviser William Bengen in 1994.

The rule, McGugan explains, “holds that a retiree planning for a 30-year retirement can safely withdraw an inflation-adjusted four per cent of their starting portfolio each year without fear of running out of money.”

Bengen, the article continues, based his formula on a “U.S. retiree with a portfolio split evenly between bonds and stocks,” and his research showed that even during the Great Depression, the Second World War or the “stagflation” period of the 1970s (a long period of very high, stubborn inflation), the four per cent rule would have worked.

Some industry observers, notably Morningstar, advise a lower withdrawal rate of 3.3 per cent, in light of “how bond yields have fallen,” he reports. Others say you could go up to 4.5 per cent.

McGugan notes that economist Karsten Jeske found “no strong relationship between prevailing levels of inflation and future safe withdrawal rates.”

He is more concerned, McGugan reports, about stock valuations as a problem for retirees.

“When stocks are expensive compared with their long-run earnings – as they are now – retirees should be cautious about how much they withdraw from their portfolio because high valuations are usually a sign of lower stock-market returns to come,” the article notes.

When talking about withdrawal rates, we should qualify the discussion by saying that certain retirement savings vehicles, such as registered retirement income funds (RRIFs), set out a minimum amount you must withdraw each year. When you look at the rates, you’ll notice they start out at four per cent when you’re 65, but gradually increase over time. If you make it to 95, the minimum withdrawal rate jumps to 20 per cent.

But if your savings are in a Tax Free Savings Account or any non-registered vehicle, the four per cent is worth consideration. We are all used to getting a steady paycheque, usually every two weeks or twice a month. If you got all your pay in January, you’d have to figure out a way to make it last so you don’t run out with a month or two left in the year. The four per cent rule is a way to make a lump sum of retirement savings last for the long haul.

The way that people used to deal with volatility in stock prices was to invest in bonds and stocks equally, as the article describes. Because interest rates have been low for decades, and bond yields have declined in recent years, modern “balanced” funds tend to add in some bond alternatives that deliver steady, bond-like income, like real estate, infrastructure and mortgages. If stocks pull back, these sources still generate reliable regular income.

A good example is the Saskatchewan Pension Plan’s Balanced Fund. The asset mix of the fund includes not only bonds, but real estate, mortgages, infrastructure and money market exposure, as well as Canadian, U.S. and international equities. This multi-category investment vehicle is a fine place to store your retirement nest egg. Check out SPP today.

Join the Wealthcare Revolution – follow SPP on Facebook!

By Sheryl Smolkin

I’ve been thinking about the cost of health and long term care a lot lately because my 88- year old Mom recently had a bad fall and cracked five ribs. She is recovering at home but she is in a lot of pain, and requires 24/7 care for the foreseeable future.

The plan has always been to keep her in her own apartment as long as possible. Fortunately her wonderful, privately-paid caregiver (a registered practical nurse) who normally works 40 hours/week has virtually moved in and is helping us to take excellent care of her. But as costs mount up over the short run, we are beginning to wonder if this will be a luxury she soon can’t afford.

Access to public resources varies across the country, but in Thornhill, Ontario where she lives , I’ve been told that a maximum of one hour a day (and most probably only two hours a week) will be offered to her on the government dime. But I’m grateful that 22 in-house physiotherapy sessions to get her up and moving better and train her to avoid future falls have been approved.

So if health and long-term care are not in your retirement planning radar yet, I have put together a few recent articles that may get you thinking about what you can expect.

On Retire Happy, Donna McCaw writes about Your Health in Retirement: Asking for Help. She cites staggering statistics from the Vancouver based Canadian Men’s Health Foundation about men and heart disease, cancer, diabetes, obesity, alcohol-related deaths as well as suicide. She interviewed recently-retired men who made it their first priority to get healthy and get rid of their “ring around the waist” by embracing fitness and learning to eat healthy.

Life after retirement: Health care costs require careful planning in the Financial Post is by Audrey Miller, the Managing Director of  http://www.eldercaring.ca/. She cites home care costs by the week and by the year (albeit in Ontario) and says as family members and professionals, we need to be better prepared. The cost of care is only going to become more expensive, especially as our public and private resources are reduced. Not only will we soon have more seniors than young people under 15, but our pool of those who are willing to be paid to do this work will also become smaller.

The coming health benefits shock for retirees by Adam Mayers at the Toronto Star reminds us that contrary to what many people believe, glasses, drugs and nursing homes will not in most cases be paid for by our universal health care. He quotes Kevin Dougherty, president of Sun Life Financial Canada who says one reason for the disconnect may be that we form an opinion of the health system through our use of it. Most of us are covered by workplace health plans and we don’t need much from these plans during our earlier years, and into middle age what we do need is covered.

Navigating Retirement healthcare is a comprehensive report from CIBC Wood Gundy discussing health care cost considerations in retirement. The study notes that long-term care is classified as an extended healthcare service under the Canada Health Act but the role of publicly-funded LTC facilities is changing as provincial governments limit the expansion of these facilities by reducing the number of registered nurses, maintaining or decreasing the number of available beds, and tightening the qualifications for acceptance into a facility.

Even if these policies were reversed, an individual’s current wait time of one year will likely increase unless significant expansion of the LTC provision occurs. The result is that a greater number of seniors are paying to enter more expensive for-profit private or semi-private facilities that can cost up to $7,000 or more a month.

Finally, Long-term care costs in Saskatchewan 2014 by Sun Life discusses how residential facilities, retirement homes/residences, government-subsidized home care, adult day care and private home care operate. Government subsidized options including home care are administered by the Regional Health Authority (RHA). As RHA resources are limited, many seniors don’t get the care they need from RHA services and have to rely on private home care services. The provincial tariff for skilled nursing ranges from $42-$70/hour while 24 hour live-in care can cost from $21-30/hr.

Do you follow blogs with terrific ideas for saving money that haven’t been mentioned in our weekly “Best from the blogosphere?” Share the information with us on http://wp.me/P1YR2T-JR and your name will be entered in a quarterly draw for a gift card.