Inflation: a pain for many, but a plus for savers?

Writing for CBC, Don Pittis notes that the return of higher inflation will be both good and bad news for Canadians.

Observing that inflation in the U.S. is running at 6.2 per cent, and that the Bank of Canada’s Governor Tiff Macklem is predicting five per cent inflation here, Pittis writes that “if history is any guide, inflation can lead to turmoil.”

“Those effects include the pain of shrinking spending power, the prospect of labour conflict as employees struggle to get their spending power back, a potential disruption of Canada’s soaring housing market and a reconsideration for older people about how to make their money last through a long retirement,” writes Pittis.

But there can be an upside to inflation for some of us, he continues. He quotes The Intercept columnist Jon Schwarz as stating “inflation is bad for the one per cent but is good for almost everyone else.”

As an example, those saving for retirement will be pleased by higher interest rates, Pittis contends.

“It is clear that those saving for retirement may take a different view, especially as the boomer bulge exits the labour market. Even before the latest round of pandemic monetary stimulus, people contemplating a long retirement complained about a paltry return on savings. With inflation higher than the rate of interest, cautious savers are now watching with horror as their future spending power shrinks,” writes Pittis.

He notes that even as inflation ticks up, “lenders have been handing out mortgages at rates considerably less than the rate of inflation.”

Inflation, the article concludes, may lead to higher prices but also higher wages for workers; Pittis adds that any rise in the Bank of Canada rate won’t be an instant fix for inflation, but the beginning of a process that might take years.

Save with SPP can attest to some of the things Pittis points out by thinking back to the high-interest days of the ‘70s and ‘80s. He’s right to predict higher rates are a plus for savers – we recall getting Canada Savings Bonds that paid double-digit interest with zero risk. The same was true of Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs).

There was a positive effect on wages as well. There was federal legislation on wage and price controls that, among other things, limited wage increases to six per cent the first year, and five per cent the second. Six and Five. In the many decades that have come and gone since the old Six and Five days, it is hard to think of a time when people got routine pay raises that were that large.

So while we gripe about higher gas prices and grocery costs, and the jump in the costs of most things due to supply chain issues, this would be a good time to start stashing away a few bucks every payday for your future retirement.

A great destination for those loonies is the Saskatchewan Pension Plan. The SPP, now celebrating its 35^th year of operations, offers a balanced approach to investing. The SPP’s Balanced Fund invests 26 per cent of its assets in bonds, 7.5 per cent in mortgages and 1.5 per cent in short term investments. You can bet the plan’s investment managers are keeping an eye out for growing opportunities in the fixed income sector – and that’s good news for all of us who have chosen SPP to be a part of our long-term retirement savings plan.

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Interest rates have been so low for so long it is hard to remember the long-ago days when everyone had Canada Savings Bonds and/or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) in their portfolios.

Save with SPP decided to look around to see what the expected rise in interest rates (and inflation) may do with Canadians’ saving plans.

Writing in the Globe and Mail, columnist Rita Trachur explains that one fear that’s out there right now is that Canadians may risk “aggravating inflation by blowing through their savings” as the pandemic (apparently) winds to a close.

She proposes that Ottawa consider bringing back – temporarily – the old Canada Savings Bond program.

“Many of us who are on the wrong side of 40 fondly remember a time when we could make juicy returns by investing in Canada Savings Bonds. Not only were they easy to purchase and risk-free, those paper certificates were oh so cool. Most importantly, though, they taught generations of Canadians how to save,” she writes.

Back in the 1970s and 1980s, when interest rates reached double-digits, Canadians held $55 billion in savings bonds. But they began to wane in popularity, Trachur writes, due to competing products like “GICs, mutual funds, and low-fee trading accounts.”

But with rising interest rates on the horizon, maybe a modern version of the Canada Savings Bond could be relaunched, writes Trachur.

“The bonds should be tax-free and have short investment terms – perhaps one year and 18 months, as examples – to give consumers real incentives to keep stashing their cash over the near term. That kind of flexibility would also give people the ability to reassess their options once interest rates start to rise,” she writes. This type of product would be a safe investment for regular people, she concludes.

Another reason to look at interest-paying investments may be the link between higher rates and lower stock prices, reports US News & World Report.

“When interest rates are low, companies and consumers can borrower cheaply and tend to spend more money, which can boost corporate profits. When interest rates rise, consumers and companies typically curb their spending, which can result in lower stock prices,” the newspaper explains.

A rise in interest rates is also bad for bond prices, the article adds. “Bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship, meaning that bond prices fall when interest rates rise,” the article explains. “But don’t liquidate your bond positions yet. Experts say bonds still hold value in an investment portfolio.”

It’s a complicated topic, to be sure. The old rule of thumb used to be that your age was the percentage of your savings that should be in fixed-income (bonds, GICs, etc.), with the rest in equity. So if you are 60, the rule suggests, 60 per cent should be in fixed income – the argument being that this would “safen” your overall holdings from some of the ups and downs the equity markets can provide.

Balance is a good thing in investing. The Saskatchewan Pension Plan’s Balanced Fund currently has this asset mix – 50 per cent Canadian, U.S. and non-North American equity, 26 per cent bonds, 7.5 per cent mortgages, 10 per cent real estate, five per cent infrastructure and 1.5 per cent in short term investments. SPP’s managers can switch up this mix to align with changing market conditions, so that all your eggs are never in just one basket. SPP has been helping Canadians save for retirement for 35 years; check them out today!

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